{ "@context":[ "https://www.w3.org/ns/activitystreams", {"Hashtag":"as:Hashtag"} ], "published":"2023-11-29T17:48:41.867Z", "attributedTo":"https://epiktistes.com/actors/toddsundsted", "to":["https://www.w3.org/ns/activitystreams#Public"], "cc":["https://epiktistes.com/actors/toddsundsted/followers"], "content":"
I just finished reading Minding the Weather: How Expert Forecasters Think.
TL;DR it's really a book on expertise—you won't learn how to forecast the weather by reading it.
My interest in weather comes via my company's work on maritime voyage and route optimization. I finished the book with a much deeper understanding of what weather forecasters do and what it means for them to forecast the weather, generally—which was the goal (the objective being to understand what it would look like to stand up our own weather team).
Surprisingly (or maybe not surprisingly), the idea that someone could actually forecast the weather was once thought of alongside pseudoscience like astrology.
As expected, the book includes a few chapters on using machines to forecast the weather. Unfortunately, if this is what you're looking for, the coverage is way out of date—and I don't mean in the 2017 to today sense. I mean in the late 1980's to today sense—the authors talk about using expert systems to forecast the weather. What?!? I don't expect coverage of GraphCast but I do expect something other than expert systems! (Maybe no one has used a NNs on weather data in the last ten years—I'd be surprised but I guess I'll check it out next.)
That aside, it was well worth my time to read. It definitely corrected many naive assumptions, and that's what I was looking for!
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